Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2019
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 29 2019 - 12Z Fri Aug 02 2019
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
An upper high will meander around the Four Corners region as
troughing digs into the eastern states as well as the Pacific
Northwest. The models/ensembles largely agree for the first few
days of the period (Mon-Wed) and a general model blend sufficed.
Thereafter, the GFS became quicker than most of the ensembles with
the western trough into Canada followed by the ECMWF. The 12Z
Canadian may have been too deep/slow but was somewhat close in
position to the ECMWF ensemble mean as the GEFS mean was out of
sync a bit to its east. Trended toward a majority ECMWF ensemble
mean weighting by next Fri to forge a mostly middle ground
solution.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Hot temperatures in the Southwest will abate as monsoonal moisture
increases and clouds/showers/storms expand in coverage. Rainfall
will focus along and ahead of the frontal boundaries from the
Great Lakes and MS/OH Valley early in the week into the
Northeast/Appalachia and then the Mid-Atlantic toward the middle
and end of the week. Florida will see an enhanced period of
rainfall with a dissipating surface boundary over the central
peninsula.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml