Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 134 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 26 2020 - 12Z Sun Mar 01 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Western ridging will eventually be eroded by later in the week as eastern troughing slowly moves its axis offshore by the end of next weekend. For the Day 3-5 period (Wed-Fri), the deterministic models were in reasonable agreement to be heavily included in the model blend preference. The exception was the 00Z CMC, which showed a much deeper, slower trough development across the central U.S. Wed-Thur. The deepening trough axis is expected to spawn a pair of lows that coalesce into a seasonably deep cyclone over the Great Lakes region before lifting into eastern Quebec. A Pacific system is expected to drop into WA/OR by next weekend and then perhaps push eastward in two pieces next Sunday as high pressure moves through the Midwest/Southeast. Guidance confidence lowered substantially for day 6-7 such that there was increasing weight toward the GEFS and ECENS ensembles. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Some frontal-forced modest to perhaps locally heavy rain is possible on Wed over Florida with more garden-variety rain up the East Coast. Precipitation on the northwest side of the system will support a swath of snow from the Great Lakes/Midwest to northern New England. Temperatures will trend cooler with time behind the system, generally for a couple days, before rebounding back toward average. Lake-effect snow will linger for a day or two, especially downwind of Lake Ontario. Some record lows (or low maxes) may be approached Fri/Sat as the core of the cold slides into the East Coast. By contrast, the West will see generally dry conditions for most of the week before the Pacific system comes ashore. Temperatures about 10-20 deg above average (and even some record highs) can be expected Wed-Sat. Light rain/snow will first push into coastal WA/OR late Fri with an expansions southward into NorCal/Sierra and eastward toward the Divide on Sat. Fracasso/Taylor Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml