Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 430 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Mar 16 2020 - 12Z Fri Mar 20 2020 ...Heavy rain threat over the Southern Plains next week... ...Snow in the Rockies may spread in the Central/High Plains later next week... ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Guidance agrees in depicting mean troughing aloft over the eastern Pacific and western U.S., between strong ridges over east-central portions of the Pacific as well as the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean. Within the mean trough the dominant feature will be an upper low that should be just off the northern California coast as of early Mon and then progress inland during the latter half of the week. Additional upstream North Pacific energy rounding the mean ridge will likely drop southward offshore from the West Coast next Thu-Fri with some potential influence on progression of the leading upper low. Meanwhile cyclonic Canadian flow aloft brushing the northern tier will support periodic surges of cold air into northern areas. The upper low tracking into the western-central U.S. and associated surface low pressure will support a broad area of precipitation from California into the east-central U.S. over the course of next week, with the potential for a significant snowfall over parts of the Northern Plains region by late next week and severe weather in the Southern Plains (see SPC for the latest outlook discussion). Over the last few model runs the primary trend for the upper low initially near California has been toward a somewhat westward/slower solution but this may be evening out with the latest 12Z runs. At least through mid-period differences are generally within typical error ranges for the valid time but based on 00Z/06Z data the GFS strayed a bit faster than most other models/means. Ultimately this will be determined by the smaller-scale embedded vorticity maxima rotating around the mean upper low, which are quite unpredictable at this time range. The updated forecast leaned toward the slightly slower consensus but could not rule out the quicker GFS-like solutions given the pattern evolution. By Thu-Fri there are some detail question marks regarding how the ejecting upper low evolves as it reaches the Plains and weakens. However the model/mean majority currently shows better than average agreement with vigorous low pressure reaching the central/north-central Plains by late in the week, supporting a blend of models/means/continuity late in the period. Farther west there is considerable spread for the energy dropping southward over the eastern Pacific late next week. Overall a blend of the 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF with their ensemble means provided the best intermediate depiction of this energy--more offshore/slower than the 00Z GFS but farther east than the 00Z Canadian. The northern stream flow across most of Canada remained uncertain enough that a general blend sufficed given more than typical run-to-run differences. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... The upper low initially near the West Coast will first support enhanced rain and higher elevation snow over favored terrain in the Sierra Nevada and ranges near the southern California coast. Precipitation will then spread into the Interior West and Rockies with highest totals likely over central Arizona and to a slightly lesser degree in the Great Basin and central Rockies. Dynamics aloft reaching the central U.S. should support Plains cyclogenesis during the latter half of the week with enough cold air present on the north side of the system to bring the potential of significant snowfall to parts of Wyoming eastward to western Kansas/South Dakota. At the same time areas from the Southern Plains northeastward should see an episode of heavy rainfall with embedded convection east of dry line development. Some locations over/near the Southern Plains could also a separate period of moderate-heavy rainfall earlier in the week as a front lingers over the region. The combination of these two events, with highest totals currently most likely over parts of Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas, may lead to flooding issues. The upper low tracking near the California coast and then into the West will bring a multi-day period of below normal highs to the southwestern U.S. with some readings 10-20F below normal. Some locations may challenge daily records for coolest highs. Central Montana will be another focus for cold weather during the week with highs 10-20F below normal. Some of this air will spread farther south through the north-central High Plains by Fri as the upper low and developing surface low lift out of the Rockies. Ahead of this storm, expect warmth to expand and become more pronounced over the South and East with time. By next Fri there should be a broad area of plus 10-25F anomalies for morning lows and plus 10-20F anomalies for highs. Fracasso/Rausch Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of southern California, Mon-Fri, Mar 16-Mar 20. - Heavy precipitation across some of the higher elevations of Arizona, Utah, and southwestern Colorado, Wed-Thu, Mar 18-Mar 19. - Heavy precipitation from portions of the central High Plains, across the northern Plains and into the upper Midwest, Thu, Mar 19. - Heavy rain across portions of the southern Plains, Mon-Tue, Mar 16-Mar 17. - Heavy rain across much of the central and southern Plains, and into the Midwest, Wed-Thu, Mar 18-Mar 19. - Heavy rain across much of the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and into the lower Great Lakes and upstate New York, Fri, Mar 20. - Heavy snow along the Sierra Nevada, Mon-Tue, Mar 16-Mar 17. - Heavy snow across portions of the northern and central Rockies eastward across the High Plains into the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest, Thu-Fri, Mar 19-Mar 20. - Flooding possible across portions of the northern and southern Plains. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the lower and upper Mississippi Valley, and the northern Plains. - Flooding likely across portions of the northern Plains and the Southwest. - High winds across portions of the northern Rockies into the northern and central Plains, Thu, Mar 19. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the interior Pacific Northwest, Mon, Mar 16. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of northern and central Montana, Mon-Wed, Mar 16-Mar 18. Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml