Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 29 2020 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2020
...Great Lakes to Northeast storm threat Sun-Mon...
...Heavy rain for the South Mon-Tue then coastal low development
up the East Coast Wed-Thu...
...Periodic wet flow into the Pacific Northwest next week...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard
Highlights...
Several significant weather concerns materialize during the medium
range period.
A lead deep low will track from the Great Lakes to the Northeast
Sun before transitioning to a coastal storm off New England and
the Canadian Maritimes Monday. A GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECENS mean
blend seems reasonable. A lead rain swath underneath along with
Great Lakes/Northeast heavy snows are expected.
The Pacific Northwest should see several periods of moderate to
terrain enhanced precipitation next week, albeit in a series of
features within highly uncertain flow. Highest totals for the
period should be along favored Olympics/Cascades terrain. Guidance
is all over the place with pattern evolution, but WPC progs were
primarily derived from the more consistent ECMWF ensemble mean.
Meanwhile, southern stream upper trough passage may focus/organize
system development across the South then coastal low development
up the East Coast. Enhanced rainfall as a result of deeper Gulf
moisture advected northward may develop, but details and
confidence on timing/rainfall and other impacts are much below
normal. WPC progs were also primarily derived from the more
consistent ECMWF ensemble mean and WPC continuity. Unseasonably
warm conditions are expected over the South ahead of the initial
system could result in daily records for highs/lows into Sunday.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml