Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 28 2020 - 12Z Sat May 02 2020
...Extended Period of Much Above Normal Temperatures Across the
West...
...Stormy Weather to Affect the Central and Eastern States...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
blend of reasonably well clustered guidance of the 18 UTC
GFS/GEFS, 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles and the 01 UTC National
Blend of Models days 3-7 in a pattern with above average
predictability. This composite solution maintains great WPC
continuity and acts to mitigate the less certain smaller scale
weather features and interactions.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
A building western U.S. upper ridge Tue into Thu will shift
eastward over the central U.S. later next week. This amplified
ridge will support much above normal temperatures to include a
risk of record maximum/minimum temperature values from CA and the
Southwest to south-central portions of the Great
Basin/Rockies/Plains. Temperatures should moderate in the wake of
the exiting upper ridge as Pacific system moisture/height falls
work inland and promote some moderate precipitation mainly into
the Northwest into later next week.
Lead shortwave trough energies will meanwhile significantly dig
over the central to eastern U.S. downstream of the amplifying
western U.S. ridge. This will carve out an amplified mid-upper
level trough/closed low and generate a deep surface low/frontal
system that will rejuvenate as it tracks from the Plains/Midwest
through the East Coast mid-later next week. This developing system
will increasingly tap Gulf moisture and instability to fuel an
expanding area of rainfall/strong to severe thunderstorms.
Enhanced precipitation will spread from the MS Valley/Midwest Tue
through the Appalachians/Northeast Wed into Thu. Locally heavy
rainfall/runoff issues are possible, mainly in recently saturated
areas near the lower MS Valley/Mid-South Tue.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml