Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Wed Jun 03 2020
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 06 2020 - 12Z Wed Jun 10 2020
...Gulf Coast to Mid-South Excessive Rainfall Threat with Tropical
Storm Cristobal...
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Model and ensemble forecast clustering has improved significantly
over the nation from this weekend into early-mid next week,
bolstering forecast confidence in both the overall pattern
amplification and an emerging threat from Tropical Storm
Cristobal. WPC medium range products have been primarily derived
from a blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF and National Blend of Models.
This maintain good continuity.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Deep tropical moisture inflow will fuel a threat for heavy
rainfall over the central and eastern Gulf Coast/FL ahead of
Cristobal this weekend, reaching a frontal zone draped over the
Southeast. Cristobal approach and landfall should increasingly
focus heavy rains along its track across the Mid-Lower MS/Lower OH
Valleys early-mid next week. Please refer to updates from the NHC
on Cristobal.
Meanwhile, a southern stream low/trough will finally eject
northeastward over the West Sat and spawn Canadian Prairie
cyclogenesis by Sun. This will occur as an amplified mid-upper
latitude upper trough digs inland into the West. Maximum
temperatures will drop to 10-20 degrees below normal from the
Intermountain West to Northern/Central Rockies as a wavy frontal
system pushes eastward across the western half of the nation
Sat-next Wed. Locally enhanced precipitation is possible along and
behind the system across the unsettled West to include some
elevation snows from the Cascades/Sierra to the Northern Rockies
given trough depth. Lead above normal temperatures are forecast to
persist in the Plains over the weekend. In particular, the
south-central High Plains should have some maximum temperatures
15+ degrees above normal. Energies reaching the n-central U.S.
next week may support enhanced moisture inflow and
convection/rains.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml