Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2020
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 11 2020 - 12Z Mon Jun 15 2020
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Over the course of this coming week/weekend, the mid-to-upper
level pattern will transition to a trough over the West, ridge
over the Plains and a trough over the East; amplifying with time
as well once the remnant energy of Cristobal exits to the East. In
general, model guidance and the ensemble means remain in decent
agreement with typical spread in specific details by the end of
the extended period, particularly with the trough moving into the
West.
Maintained continuity for the evolution of this pattern by
primarily using the 00Z ECWMF, 00Z/06Z GFS and their respective
ensemble means. The evolution of the system near the Bermuda
continues to be uncertain. NHC will continue to monitor this
system in their outlooks.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
With ridging in place over the Rockies and High Plains,
temperatures will be averaging 5 to 15 degrees warmer than usual
for mid-June. Cooler temperatures will be brought into the region
as a slow-moving cold front tracks eastward. Behind the front,
temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler than average across
the Pacific Northwest and surrounding area this weekend.
With the pattern switch mentioned above, a large portion of the
country will have little to no precipitation. This will be helpful
for soil saturation recoveries after several inches of rain dumped
in association with tropical cyclone Cristobal. Some modest rain
may accompany the front over the East and into the Southeast with
perhaps a surge on Sunday along the East Coast as the front slumps
eastward. Precipitation will increase across the Pacific Northwest
was the leading Pacific front approaches and pushes inland toward
the Great Basin and Intermountain West, especially in the areas of
higher terrain where enhanced precipitation is favored. Once this
front exits the Rockies late in the extended period, coverage of
precipitation over the Plains may increase.
Campbell
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml