Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 129 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 16 2020 - 12Z Mon Jul 20 2020 ...Hot temperatures to continue into next week east of the Rockies... ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Strong upper high south of the Gulf of Alaska will favor continued troughing over the Pacific Northwest and expansive ridging over the central/eastern US. This summertime pattern will keep the storm track along the Canadian border with progressive westerly flow and above normal temperatures for most areas of the lower 48. Ensembles remain in great agreement after a bit of a departure in the GEFS from the steadfast ECMWF ensembles. Blend of the 12Z/18Z deterministic sufficed to start with the system pushing out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Trended toward the 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean and 18Z GEFS mean as the GFS appeared too quick across Canada (even in progressive flow) and the Canadian was too flat across the northeast Pacific. ...Weather Pattern/Hazard Highlights... A cold front will push through the eastern Great Lakes Thursday with a chance of showers/thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. The unsettled weather will continue along and to the south of the boundary (Ohio Valley/Midwest/Mid-Atlantic) and into the Northeast with overall light to modest rainfall amounts. Generally dry conditions are expected elsewhere over the CONUS except Florida which will see afternoon showers/storms and perhaps over the southern Rockies on the west side of the upper high to the northern Plains next week. The relative lack of rainfall across the West and Plains during the next week in combination with summertime heat is expected to worsen/expand drought conditions in those areas. Temperatures will be near to below normal over the Pacific Northwest and along the coast through California, but close to normal over the rest of the West. Temperatures remain near record highs over parts of New Mexico and Texas later this week with widespread 100+ readings, but a few degrees cooler than in the short term. Above normal temperatures are likely from West Texas through the central Plains, Great Lakes, and into the Northeast by the weekend (5-10 deg above normal). Widespread highs in the 90s are expected with higher heat indices over 100F from Oklahoma eastward through the Southeast. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml