Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1248 AM EDT Sun Aug 09 2020
Valid 12Z Wed Aug 12 2020 - 12Z Sun Aug 16 2020
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Guidance still reasonably agrees that two main closed upper lows
will track gradually eastward over Canada as trough energies along
with temperature moderating and convection focusing fronts work
across the northern half of the U.S.. Underneath, hot upper
ridging will prevail over much of the nation's southern tier, with
some record triple-digit maximum temperatures possible from
interior CA to the Desert Southwest and the southern Plains.
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite of best clustered guidance from the 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF,
GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and the 02 UTC National Blend of Models
in a pattern with above normal predictability. WPC continuity is
well maintained.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Wavy frontal passage will focus thunderstorms with some heavy
downpours from the Midwest to the East Wed-Fri. The wavy trailing
front nearly stalls from the Mid-Atlantic back to the
north-central U.S. and impulses undercutting/ejecting from an
emerging Northwest U.S. upper trough will fire episodes of strong
thunderstorms from the north-central U.S. to the Mid-MS/OH Valleys
this week. Meanwhile, the Southeast/Florida will continue to
experience diurnal convection of varying intensity. Within the
broad area of shower and thunderstorm potential there will be some
areas of heavy rainfall contingent on less predictable flow
details.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml