Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
104 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 20 2020 - 12Z Mon Aug 24 2020
...Remaining hot for much of the West into next week...
...Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Strong upper ridging over the Southwest will persist into next
week as troughing lingers over the lower Ohio, Tennessee, and
lower Mississippi River Valleys. This will result in well above
normal temperatures in areas west of the Rockies, some of which
may approach and exceed record values throughout the Great Basin
southward to the Colorado River Valley/Southwest especially
through this week. Some isolated showers/storms will dot the
landscape over the Rockies each day. A stalled frontal boundary
near the Gulf Coast and through the Southeast will be a focus for
periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially across Florida.
To the north, lighter rainfall is forecast across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes later this week into the weekend along another
frontal boundary. This may push into the Northeast late in the
weekend into next Monday. Cooler than normal temperatures will be
prevalent over the southeast quarter of the CONUS by only a few
degrees.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The latest deterministic guidance was primarily used for the WPC
blend for days 3-5, anchored by the 12Z ECMWF and 12Z/18Z GFS
which offered the best agreement and consistency from the previous
forecast cycle. Canadian/UKMET were close with most features but
still differed with the handling of low pressure through southern
Canada later this week and over the northeastern Pacific this
weekend. 12Z GFS fell out of favor CONUS-wide by about Sunday per
its likely too aggressive solution with Canadian troughing.
Trended to a nearly even blend of the 18Z GFS/GEFS and 12Z
ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean for the last two days of the forecast
which maintain the western upper high.
Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml