Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2020
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 17 2020 - 12Z Mon Sep 21 2020
...Sally Excessive Rains Tennessee Valley & Southern
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Thu-Fri...
...Welcome late summer rains for the Northwest, northern
California & northern Rockies...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from the
NHC forecast for Sally and for the rest of the nation a composite
of the increasingly well clustered guidance from the latest
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian, GEFS/ECENS means, and the National Blend of
Models.
...Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
With Sally's forecast track farther inland into the interior
Southeast after landfall, the threat of heavy rainfall has
increased focus across the Tennessee Valley through the southern
Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. The timing of the heavy
rain should be from Wednesday night through Friday morning. Sally
is expected to become extratropical over the interior Southeast as
it merges with a stationary front there. A longwave trough
forecast to dip into the eastern U.S. should then push the system
relatively quickly off to the east and into the Atlantic by the
weekend.
Meanwhile, a complex evolution over the northeastern Pacific will
yield a amplified upper trough/low slated to slowly bring some
welcome rainfall and cooler temperatures to the fire stricken
Northwest and northern California by midweek then increasingly
inland to the northern Intermountain West/Rockies into the weekend
in a wet late summer pattern.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml