Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2020
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 19 2020 - 12Z Wed Sep 23 2020
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC medium range product suite was created from a composite of
well clustered guidance from the latest GFS/ECMWF/Canadian/UKMET
and National Blend of Models Days 3-5 (Sat-Mon) in a relatively
quite pattern with above normal forecast predictability. Forecast
spread growth days 6/7 lent a change to a blend of the quite
compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means.
...Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
In the wake of Sally, strong high pressure settling into the East
will bring well below normal temperatures including a few record
values this weekend into early next week, with gradual moderation
from west to east. The high pressure surge will also act to
confine deeper moisture mainly to Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
near a slow moving trailing front to linger over the next week.
NHC is monitoring a slow moving tropical disturbance over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico and broad deep moisture seems set to fuel
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall that may feed into the
western to west-central Gulf Coast.
Elsewhere, amplified upper trough/embedded low ejection will
spread some welcome rainfall and cooler temperatures out from the
fire stricken Northwest and northern California to the northern
Intermountain West/Rockies this weekend. Ahead of this system, the
warmest temperature anomalies in the 10-15F range will focus into
the northern-central states.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml