Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 29 2020 - 12Z Mon Nov 02 2020
...Heavy rain threat for the Mid-Atlantic later this week from
Zeta...
...Possible wintry weather in New England Friday...
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
The beginning of the extend period has a closed low tracking
through the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and eventually
lifting through the Mid-Atlantic as an open wave in tandem as a
hurricane makes landfall over the central Gulf Coast and curves
northeast toward the Mid-Atlantic. The GFS continues to be the
faster solution moving Zeta inland and along its path through
toward the East Coast. The ECWMF, CMC and the UKMET have been
fairly consistent will the pattern evolution, strength, axis
orientation and intensity of both the winter storm over the
Plains, the heavy rain over the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
the heavy swath of tropical-induced rainfall over the Gulf states
and Appalachians. Therefore, to maintain a sense of continuity the
blend for this forecast consisted of the 00Z ECWMF/CMC/UKMET and
the ensemble means.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Temperatures across the Southern Plains will moderate by the
weekend as the closed low and associated surface fronts progresses
eastward, however any northward moving precipitation will more
than likely fall as snow Friday. In contrast, above-normal
temperatures are forecast for parts of the Pacific Northwest,
California and into the Great Basin region. Daily values will be
around 5 to 15 degrees warmer.
Moderate, possibly locally heavy rain will align from southern
portions of the Appalachians and northward to the Ohio Valley to
the Mid-Atlantic/southern new England region as Zeta tracks
north/east toward the East Coast. Zeta is forecast to progress
quickly as it transitions from tropical to extratropical. This
should limit some of the excessive rainfall potential. For the
Northwest, onshore flow will lend to light rain shower with
possibly now in the higher elevations.
Campbell
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml