Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EDT Sun Jun 06 2021
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 09 2021 - 12Z Sun Jun 13 2021
...Locally Heavy Rainfall from the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys to
the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic...
...Much Above Normal Temperatures for the North-Central U.S....
...Guidance/Predictability Evaluation...
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite blend of reasonably well clustered guidance of the 06
UTC GFS, 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian and the 13 UTC National Blend
of Models Wednesday-Friday before moving to the compatible
GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means next weekend amid gradually
growing forecast spread. The pattern overall offers above normal
forecast predictability/continuity and remains consistent with 12
UTC guidance.
...Weather Highlights/Hazards...
Much above normal to near record warmth will persist next week for
the northern Rockies/Plains and the Upper Midwest. Upper trough
ejection over the West Wed-Thu may then focus north-central U.S.
convection. Unsettled weather meanwhile with a slowly ejecting
upper level trough/low may spread locally heavy midweek TN and OH
River Valleys rainfall to the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic later week coincident with a settling of a
temperature moderating backdoor front. A storm system slowly
approaching the West Coast may bring precipitation and unsettled
weather to the Pacific Northwest by next weekend.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml