Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 148 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 20 2020 - 12Z Fri Jan 24 2020 ...Overview... Progressive upper pattern will take the western/eastern ridge/trough couplet eastward next week which will bring back ridging to the East later in the week. A system will push through the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and reorganize over the southern Plains by Thursday and into the Lower Mississippi Valley next Friday. This could increase the threat of some heavier rain to the region in an otherwise quieter pattern between storms. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The flow out of the Pacific continues to be hard to resolve in the shorter wavelengths, most evident in the GFS and its lack of consistency. Even in the other models, none has been much better than average. The ensembles, at least, have shown better continuity but at the expense of detail. The ECMWF ensemble mean has been less prone to changes than the GEFS mean, but both have shown trends in recent runs toward a more amplified yet still progressive pattern. Preferred the ECMWF-led cluster of solutions rather than the GFS, which was close to the GEFS members, stemming from 1) a different handling of the Pacific flow and therefore downstream shortwave timing and 2) a sharper flow out of eastern Canada in the GFS vs others. GFS did come back into general agreement by next Thu/Fri with a system in the southern Plains though on the northern side of the multi-center ensemble spread. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Troughing east of the Rockies early in the week will favor below normal temperatures especially over the Upper Midwest/Corn Belt (owing to new snowfall in the short term) but also to the Gulf region and through Florida. Above normal temperatures in the West and Rockies Mon/Tue will slide eastward to the Plains on Wednesday then Great Lakes/Midwest Thursday and to the East Coast Friday. Precipitation will be limited in the East to around the Great Lakes and across southern Florida early in the period as the system comes into WA/OR and northern California. Modest lower elevation rain/higher elevation snow Tuesday will be followed by lighter precipitation Wednesday before increasing again next Thu-Fri with another Pacific front. By next Wed-Thu, Gulf moisture should increase rain chances over Texas northward and northeastward as a front approaches the area from the northwest. Some wintry precipitation may be supported on the northern fringe. Should the system tap enough Gulf moisture, some heavy rainfall will be possible along the northwestern Gulf coast into the ArkLaTex. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml