Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 101 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 Valid 12Z Wed Jan 22 2020 - 12Z Sun Jan 26 2020 ...Overview... A developing system in the Southern Plains will spread modest to perhaps locally heavy rainfall from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward next Thu-Sun. In the Pacific Northwest, a steady stream of systems will subject some cities to some sogginess. Overall, a warming trend over most of the CONUS is expected. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The models/ensembles were in generally good synoptic agreement in showing a progressive and modestly amplified longwave flow pattern. A blend among the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian formed a good cluster around the ensemble consensus which still shows fairly typical spread. The 12Z Canadian was mostly in between the GFS and ECMWF and closer to the best ensemble clustering, but neither other scenario was considered improbable. This would take the southern system northeastward toward the Midwest with a jump across the Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic next weekend. Off the West Coast, ensembles have trended toward deeper troughing next weekend at the expense of the leading systems east of the Rockies. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Despite what is normally just about the coldest time of the year, temperatures will trend toward above average nearly CONUS-wide by the end of the week into next weekend. Highest anomalies will lie astride the Canadian border with near to slightly above average temperatures near the Gulf Coast. Precipitation will be non-continuous but quite repetitive in the Northwest as several systems push through. The generally mild flow will keep snow levels a bit higher too. Farther east, rainfall will expand over Texas to points eastward/northeastward with help from leftover mid/high-level moisture across the eastern Pacific/Baja Mexico. Gulf inflow will help realize modest rainfall totals along the NW Gulf coast but with continued uncertainty to its northward extent. Some amounts could be locally heavy. The system will likely have some wintry weather on its northern side from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes but with amounts contingent on the precipitation structure and system evolution. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml