Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 157 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Valid 12Z Sat Jan 25 2020 - 12Z Wed Jan 29 2020 ...Overview... A frontal boundary will lift through the Northeast this weekend with inland and elevation snow and coastal rain. The West will continue to see nearly daily chances of rains/snow as the pattern remains active out of the Pacific. By next Tue/Wed, a system may organize over the southern Plains with more rain and northern-side snow for middle of the CONUS. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Overall a multi-model deterministic blend served as a good starting point for the first half of the forecast period. The eastern system has shown good run-to-run continuity with a slight trend quicker. Much more uncertainty lies off the Pacific Northwest coast with the flow over the northeast Pacific Ocean, drive by a strong jet in between subtropical ridging northeast of Hawai'i and an upper low over Alaska. This leads to lower than average confidence in timing as the models keep shifting the system progression with each run. Thus, a consensus blend was used to mitigate future changes. By next Tue/Wed, trough in the West should dig into the southern Plains and help spur cyclogenesis along the Red River (TX/OK border). GFS/GEFS were a bit quicker than the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles, but a middle ground solution was prudent for now with the large lead-in uncertainty. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Two areas of low pressure will consolidate into one near Long Island/Southern New England by Sunday morning, with snow over inland areas/higher elevations and rain along the I-95 corridor south of Maine. Modest to perhaps significant snow is possible for some areas. Given the active pattern in the West, rounds of precipitation will continue. Higher elevations can expect snow with lower elevation rain, with several inches liquid equivalent over the multi-day period. Frontal system on Sun-Tue will spread precipitation through much of the interior and central Rockies but this should be on the lighter side overall. Most of the CONUS will see near or above average temperatures in the medium range, with the highest anomalies of 10 to 25 degrees across the north-central tier of the US. Near to slightly below average temperatures are favored across portions of the Southeast/Florida. Fracasso Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml