Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 23 2020 - 12Z Thu Feb 27 2020
...Lead South-Central to Northeast U.S. storm Sunday-Tuesday Night
to be closely followed by a wintry Northwest to Midwest/Northeast
storm Sunday-next Thursday...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard
Highlights...
System #1: A potent southern stream system will reach the
s-central Rockies/Plains Sun and then lift steadily northeastward
to the Northeast by Wed. A swath of precipitation over the central
Rockies/Plains into Sunday offers a snow/ice risk on the northern
periphery of precipitation, including heavy mountain snows.
Moderate precipitation will spread to the Mid MS/TN/OH Valleys,
Appalachians and Eastern Seaboard Mon/Tue. There is an increasing
risk for snow/ice on the northern periphery from the cooled Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes to the Northeast. Models and ensembles have
converged upon a more commonly supported solution with this system.
System #2: A northern stream upper trough/surface system moving to
the Northwest Sunday will dig through the Great Basin and Rockies
Sunday and bring enhanced rain with heavy mountain snow with slow
system progression/reinforcement. Downstream progression over the
east-central states into next midweek offers an emerging pattern
for moderate lead precipitation, but there would especially be a
threat of heavy wrapback snows from the north-central Plains to
the Midwest. Forecast spread is not ideal, but there is some
signal in support of a significant secondary coastal low genesis
from the Mid-Atlantic to New England next Wed/Thu. WPC progs offer
modest system depth compared to some model guidance given flow and
stream interaction uncertainties at these longer time frames.
Expect much below normal temperatures over the central U.S. in the
wake of this system with temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below
normal.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml