Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2020
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 29 2020 - 12Z Thu Apr 02 2020
...Great Lakes to Northeast storm threat Sun-Mon...
...Heavy rain for the South Mon-Tue then coastal low development
up the East Coast Wed-Thu...
...Periodic wet flow into the Pacific Northwest next week...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment and Weather/Hazard
Highlights...
Several significant weather concerns materialize during the medium
range period.
A lead deep low will track from the Great Lakes to the Northeast
Sun before transitioning to a coastal storm off New England and
the Canadian Maritimes Monday. A GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECENS mean
blend seems reasonable. A lead rain swath underneath along with
Great Lakes/Northeast heavy snows are expected.
The Pacific Northwest should see several periods of moderate to
terrain enhanced precipitation next week, albeit in a series of
features within highly uncertain flow from the northeast Pacific.
Highest totals this period will be along favored Olympics/Cascades
terrain. Guidance remains all over the place with pattern
evolution, but WPC progs were mainly derived from the more
consistent ECMWF ensemble mean.
Meanwhile, southern stream upper trough passage may focus/organize
system development across the South then coastal low development
up along the East Coast. Enhanced rainfall as a result of deeper
Gulf moisture advected northward may develop over the South, but
details and confidence on timing/rainfall and other impacts are
much below normal. Expect wrapping Atlantic moisture to also fuel
organized rains up the East coast. The deepening low also offers
some late period potential for snows from the central Appalachians
to the interior Northeast. WPC progs were primarily derived from
the more consistent ECMWF ensemble mean, deeper model trends and
WPC continuity. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected over the
South ahead of the initial system could result in daily records
for highs/lows into Sunday.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml