Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 246 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Apr 02 2020 - 12Z Mon Apr 06 2020 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a blend of compatable guidance from the 06 UTC GFS and 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean days 3-5/Thu-Sat. This solution offers good WPC continuity and average predictability. Later, the models seem to have been having a more difficult time than usual recently at longer time frames due to pattern sensitivty upstream and/or data injest issues TBD. I asked for EMC/MEG to look into it as the GEFS and especially the GFS are again showing some big run-run continuity changes by day 6/7. The ECMWF/CMC are not immune to this issue either, especially inland from the Pacific. Accordingly, WPC Day 6/7 products gravitated to the ECMWF ensemble mean in a pattern with below normal predictability. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Precipitation will focus along/ahead of a shortwave lifting over the north-central U.S. Thu-Fri along the track of frontal low pressure from Kansas to Minnesota. Marginally cold air digging on the northwest side of the low offers a heavy snow risk, especially from the central Rockies through the Dakotas. Precipitation will become lighter farther east over the Great Lakes/Northeast this weekend as upper ridging only slowly relents. Underneath, a series of hard to time southern stream impulses will eject over TX and the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states and combine with frontal/moisture convergence to produce a periodic local threat for heavy rains Thu-Mon. Meanwhile, the Pac NW will see some light rain/snow as a couple systems move through, but there is some signal for organized activity through CA and to a lesser extent the Intermountain West this weekend into early next week. The Sierra may have the most threat for heavy snow with this series of systems. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml