Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2020 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 11 2020 - 12Z Mon Jun 15 2020 ...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Over the course of this coming week/weekend, the mid-to-upper level pattern will transition to a trough over the West, ridge over the Plains and a trough over the East; amplifying with time as well once the remnant energy of Cristobal exits to the East. In general, model guidance and the ensemble means remain in decent agreement with typical spread in specific details by the end of the extended period, particularly with the trough moving into the West. Maintained continuity for the evolution of this pattern by primarily using the 00Z ECWMF, 00Z/06Z GFS and their respective ensemble means. The evolution of the system near the Bermuda continues to be uncertain. NHC will continue to monitor this system in their outlooks. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... With ridging in place over the Rockies and High Plains, temperatures will be averaging 5 to 15 degrees warmer than usual for mid-June. Cooler temperatures will be brought into the region as a slow-moving cold front tracks eastward. Behind the front, temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler than average across the Pacific Northwest and surrounding area this weekend. With the pattern switch mentioned above, a large portion of the country will have little to no precipitation. This will be helpful for soil saturation recoveries after several inches of rain dumped in association with tropical cyclone Cristobal. Some modest rain may accompany the front over the East and into the Southeast with perhaps a surge on Sunday along the East Coast as the front slumps eastward. Precipitation will increase across the Pacific Northwest was the leading Pacific front approaches and pushes inland toward the Great Basin and Intermountain West, especially in the areas of higher terrain where enhanced precipitation is favored. Once this front exits the Rockies late in the extended period, coverage of precipitation over the Plains may increase. Campbell Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Thu-Fri, Jun 11-Jun 12. - Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Sat-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 15. - Flooding possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast. - Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast and the Lower Mississippi Valley. - High winds across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Great Basin, and the Southwest, Fri, Jun 12. - High winds across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Southern Rockies, and the Southwest, Sat, Jun 13. - High winds across portions of the Great Lakes, Thu, Jun 11. - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Central Great Basin and the Southwest, Fri, Jun 12. - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Central Great Basin and the Southwest, Sat, Jun 13. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Sun, Jun 11-Jun 14. WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml