Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Wed Jun 24 2020
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 27 2020 - 12Z Wed Jul 01 2020
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
An amplified upper level trough set to robustly dig down through
the West Coast would act to eject a lead low/trough from the
Southwest to the north-central U.S. this weekend into next
midweek. Downstream upper level ridging over the central U.S.
should meanwhile favor upper trough development from the Northeast
through the East. The 00 UTC ECMWF seems the closest deterministic
model match with the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means. These emphasize
amplified flow over the lower 48 well into next week and a favored
composite blend along with the National Blend of Models should
tend to mitigate forecast uncertainties with system
timing/interactions and convective focus. WPC continuity is
reasonably well maintained.
...Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Cold frontal progression should focus showers and potentially
strong storms from the Northeast to the Ohio
Valley/mid-Mississippi Valley this weekend along with some locally
heavy downpours. Showers and storms will continue to linger next
week down across much of the South/Southeast states along the
slow/trailing front and with upper trough amplification.
Upstream, a potent cold front will dive through the West this
weekend into next week and focus some showers and storms. Given
flow amplitude and lead Southwest system ejection, activity will
also spread out across the Rockies into the north-central states
over the period with height falls/instability and moisture.
Potential upper low development over the West brings a threat for
heavy precipitation with models indicating the best chance for
this across western Montana Sunday and Monday. Significant height
falls and cooling temperatures should allow precipitation to fall
as snow across the highest elevations of the northern Rockies.
Temperatures across the West will trend cooler with a period of
temperature anomalies 10 to 15+ degrees below normal possible
across portions of the Great Basin early next week. Downstream,
expect a defined lead warming trend across the Central U.S. with
the best chance for much above normal temperatures across the
north-central U.S.
Schichtel/Santorelli
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml