Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
237 AM EDT Mon Jul 06 2020
Valid 12Z Thu Jul 09 2020 - 12Z Mon Jul 13 2020
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC medium range product suite was made from a composite blend
of reasonably clustered larger scale guidance from the 18 UTC
GFS/GEFS, the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean, the 01 UTC
National Blend of Models and WPC continuity. Widespread
differences at the smaller scales is particularly evident with the
development of an Eastern Seaboard coastal low with origin from
convection over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico now being
monitored by NHC. The WPC blend tends to mitigate the less
predictable smaller scale system differences and maintains good
product continuity. It should be noted that the 12/00 UTC UKMET
develops the coastal low much more earnestly offshore and that
remains plausible. However, the latest 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
have not trended toward the outlier UKMET.
...Weather Pattern/Hazard Highlights...
Upper trough energies will periodically work inland over an
unsettled Northwestern U.S. and western Canada. A steady stream of
ejecting impulses then progress downstream over southern Canada
and the U.S. northern tier. This will force moderating fronts over
the broad region and spawn some strong to severe thunderstorms.
Convective rainfall potential may focus from the Northern Plains
southeastward across the Midwest. Well into the triple digits
maximum temperatures will occur from the Desert Southwest/southern
Great Basin to the south-central Plains, with hot and humid
weather over much of the central and eastern U.S. to include some
record heat. A heavy rain/weather threat is also expected to lift
from the Southeast to coastal Mid-Atlantic and New England
contingent on upper support/coastal low development.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml