Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 PM EDT Fri Aug 07 2020
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 10 2020 - 12Z Fri Aug 14 2020
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Guidance reasonably agrees that two closed upper lows will track
eastward over Canada as trough energies and moderating/convection
focusing fronts work their way across the northern half of the
U.S.. Underneath, hot upper ridging will prevail over the southern
half of our nation.
The WPC medium range product suite was mainly derived from a
composite of well clustered guidance from the 06Z GFS and the 00Z
ECMWF in a pattern with above normal predictability. Forecast
spread growth and flow continuity favors a transition into day
7/Fri toward a blend of the 00Z EC ensemble mean and the 06Z GEFS.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
A cold front working it way across the northern Plains will likely
trigger clusters of thunderstorms which could bring areas of heavy
rainfall from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes later on
Monday into Tuesday. As the trailing portion of the cold front
stalls across the central Plains, episodes of strong to severe
thunderstorms are likely to track from the north-central U.S.
toward the eastern U.S., from Tuesday through the end of next week.
Meanwhile, the Southeast/Florida will see diurnal convection of
varying intensity, with a weakening front over the Southeast
providing an added focus early in the period. Within the broad
area of shower/thunderstorm potential there will likely be areas
of heavy rainfall.
Temperatures are not expected to stray too far from normal during
the medium-range period for the entire lower 48. Nevertheless,
above normal temperatures will prevail across the northern tier
states into New England even behind the cold front due to less
cloudiness. Meanwhile, a good chance of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms will keep high temperatures cooler than normal for
the central to southern portions of the country. Over the
southern High Plains, triple-digit high temperatures are forecast
to continue through the end of next week. In contrast, cooler air
will work its way across the Northwest behind a Pacific cold front.
Kong/Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml