Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EDT Sat Aug 08 2020
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 11 2020 - 12Z Sat Aug 15 2020
...Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
Models and ensembles reasonably agree that two main closed upper
lows will track gradually eastward over Canada as trough energies
along with temperature moderating and convection focusing fronts
work across the northern half of the U.S.. Underneath, hot upper
ridging will prevail over much of the nation's southern tier, with
some record triple-digit maximum temperatures possible from the
Desert Southwest to the southern Plains.
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
composite blend of well clustered guidance from the latest
GFS/ECMWF, GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means and National Blend of Models
in a pattern with above normal predictability. WPC continuity is
well maintained.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Wavy frontal passage will focus thunderstorms with some heavy
downpours from the Midwest to the East Tue-Fri. The trailing front
stalls back to the north-central U.S. and impulses
undercutting/ejecting from an emerging Northwest U.S. upper trough
will fire episodes of strong thunderstorms from the north-central
U.S. to the Mid-MS/OH Valleys next week.
Meanwhile, the Southeast/Florida will see diurnal convection of
varying intensity. Within the broad area of shower/thunderstorm
potential there will be some areas of heavy rainfall.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml