Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 20 2020 - 12Z Sat Oct 24 2020
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Guidance continues to offer a well clustered larger scale forecast
evolution through medium range time scales. This pattern will be
highlighted by a broad upper trough over much of the lower 48,
save lingering ridging over the Southeast. However, there is above
normal forecast spread with the timing of smaller scale impulses
progressing through the flow and associated weather focusing
surface systems. Towards the end of next week, moisture may be
drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the east-central Gulf
states/Florida consistent with potential flow amplification over
the nation. This would be well to the north of a potential
Caribbean tropical low as per NHC.
The WPC medium range product suite was based on a blend of the
most compatible 12 UTC GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the 01
UTC National Blend of Models. This maintained good WPC continuity.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
A series of wavy frontal systems with modest moisture will focus
periods of moderate precipitation from the Northwest/Rockies and
north-central U.S./Midwest to the Northeast. Post-frontal Canadian
cold air surges will dig through the Northwest/Great Basin/central
U.S. and into the Great Lakes. Temperature profiles favor periods
of snow for the Cascades, the northern Rockies and the Dakotas.
The highest chance of enhanced snows is over the northern Rockies.
The heaviest rains may focus over the Midwest/Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, moisture may increase into Florida and the east-central
Gulf states late next week as a tropical low is forecast to move
into the western Caribbean Sea together with expected gradual
amplification of the upper-level pattern over the U.S..
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml