Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 426 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 25 2020 - 12Z Thu Oct 29 2020 ...Arctic air surges into the Western and Central U.S... ...Heavy Rain Threat for the Southern Plains/Mid-Mississippi Valley/Midwest/Northeast Sunday and Monday along with Upper Midwest Snows... ...Heavy Snow and Rain Threat for Southern and Central Portions of the Great Basin/Rockies/Plains Sunday-Wednesday... ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... Through day 5, the latest forecast guidance shows remarkable agreement and consistency that has persisted for several cycles now. The development of a separated closed low across the Southwest U.S. does introduce some forecast uncertainty, mainly in regards to the progression/ejection into the southern Plains on day 6/7. The GFS remains a faster solution and ahead of its ensemble mean and other supported guidance. As a result, the WPC blend did favor higher percentages of the ECMWF/ECENS though included some of the GEFS mean to account for the aforementioned forecast uncertainty. In short, the expected upper level pattern will favor troughing over the interior West while anomalous ridging remains anchored over the Southeast U.S. well through the period. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Canadian high pressure ushering in much colder temperatures will dig sharply through the central U.S., but will moderate as it reaches the East. Upstream, a strong trough and reinforcing energies will dive robustly across the West this weekend and next week. This will result in significant temperature changes and widespread wintry precipitation. A heavy snow/rain threat will spread over south-central portions of the Great Basin/Rockies/Plains and also over the Upper Midwest/Great lakes in lead flow with frontal wave genesis and another ample post-frontal cold high pressure surge Sun/Mon. Deeper warm sector moisture sourced from the Gulf will also interact with a leading cold front to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could repeat/train and produce some heavy amounts from the southern Plains northeastward to the Midwest and Northeast Sun-Tue. Persistence of cold Canadian air will keep the core of most extreme below normal temperature anomalies centered over the north-central Rockies/High Plains during the period where readings up to 30-40F below normal are possible for multiple days, while only moderately less extreme anomalies push southward over the Plains in response to the individual shortwaves/surface systems and snow cover. Cold air will also dig over the West, with temperatures 10-25F below normal for the Interior Northwest/Great Basin as upper troughing amplifies. Farther east, the warm sector ahead of the first front will contain well above normal temperatures (up to plus 10-20F anomalies). Frontal passage will bring highs close to normal over the East, but morning lows will remain above normal over the southeast third of the lower 48 as the boundary lingers over the Florida Peninsula and adjoining waters. Schichtel/Taylor Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Plains, and the Southern Plains, Mon-Wed, Oct 26-Oct 28. - Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Oct 25-Oct 26. - Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Tue-Wed, Oct 27-Oct 28. - Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, Thu, Oct 29. - Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, and the Southwest, Sun-Mon, Oct 25-Oct 26. - Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Mon-Wed, Oct 26-Oct 28. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast. - Flooding likely across portions of the Southwest. - High winds across portions of the Central Great Basin and California, Sun-Mon, Oct 25-Oct 26. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Pacific Northwest, Sun-Wed, Oct 25-Oct 28. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, California, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Mon-Wed, Oct 26-Oct 28. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Mon-Thu, Oct 26-Oct 29. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Central Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Sun-Thu, Oct 25-Oct 29. - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of California, Sun, Oct 25. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Oct 25-Oct 26 and lower Alaskan Panhandle, Sun-Thu, Oct 25-Oct 29. WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml