Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 27 2020 - 12Z Sat Oct 31 2020
...Record cold in the central US Tue before relenting...
...Heavy precipitation threat from the Southern Plains to the
southeastern third of the CONUS next week...
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
In general, the longwave pattern is in agreement given the usual
spread in timing features and placement of precipitation.
Consensus favored a combination of the 00Z ECWMF/EC mean, 00/06
GFS and GEFS mean, and the 00Z UKMET/CMC. The ECWMF favored
precipitation further north and heavier across the Plains and
Midwest while the was a little lighter and south. The CMC was very
wet along he eastern Gulf Coast and later into the Southeast. A
combination of he above provided a middle of the road approach at
this time.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
An early season cold spell occurring over much of the West,
Rockies and Plains during the short range periods will linger into
Tuesday; the cold airmass is expected to moderate and move
eastward during extended period. Numerous daily low records, as
well as low maxes, will be possible Tuesday-- especially for
locations across the Southern/Central Plains were temperatures
will average 20 to upwards of 40 degrees cooler than normal for
late October. As the airmass moderates, daily values will still
hover around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than seasonal normal. Outside
of this cold airmass, temperatures will be roughly 5 to 10 degrees
warmer for parts of the Pacific Northwest, California and into the
Great Basin region.
Most of the active weather will be across the southern half of the
country. Warm, moist air will be transported north from the Gulf
ahead of a tropical disturbance drifts west/northwest. Meanwhile,
a series of waves along a frontal boundary will lift/track east
across the Southern/Central High Plains early on and then progress
toward the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. Within the warm
sector, scattered to widespread heavy rain will be possible
Tuesday and Wednesday primarily for parts Texas and Oklahoma, but
also the surrounding area. In the cold sector, snow along with
sleet and/or freezing rain near the transition zone is expected.
As the system moves across the Midwest/Mississippi Valley it will
spread the heavy rain/wintry precipitation along with it. Heavy
precipitation will be possible for the Southeast, Appalachians and
the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend as the front pushes across
the East Coast.
Campbell
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml