Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 28 2020 - 12Z Sun Nov 01 2020
...Heavy precipitation threat from the Plains/Mid-Mississippi
Valley eastward to the Mid-Atlantic later this week...
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Through the course of the coming week a deep, closed low will exit
the Southern Rockies into the Plains and progress east-northeast
toward the Mid-Atlantic regions, ultimately weakening to an open
wave by Friday. In additional, tropical cyclone Zeta currently
located southeast of the Yucatan Peninsula, is forecast by the
National Hurricane Center to track north through the Gulf of
Mexico and make landfall as a hurricane on Wednesday. The two
sources of moisture are expected to merge into/along the frontal
boundary over the Tennessee Valley Thursday and move to the East
Coast Friday. The GFS has been/continued to progress this system
faster the rest of the guidance. The ECWMF, the CMC and the
ensemble means were more clustered favoring higher QPF streaks
along the boundary from eastern Kansas to West Virginia.
QPF associated with Zeta as it transitions from a hurricane to a
tropical depression or remnant low favors a combination of the
ECWMF/CMC but also some GFS as well. The exact placement of the
QPF swath will be closely tied to NHC's track for Zeta so there is
some uncertainty of the axis and location of local maximums.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
The recent cold spell over the Plains is expected to moderate
through the extended, however many locations will continue to
register temperatures 10-30 degrees colder than normal on
Wednesday. To the east of the upper low, near to above normal
temperatures will trend toward near to below normal as the system
progresses eastward. In the Pacific Northwest, California and into
the Great Basin region, temperatures will be 5-15 degrees above
normal through most of the period.
Deep tropical moisture streaming northward over the frontal
boundary will initiate and sustain heavy rainfall for parts of the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. These heavy showers are
expected to continue along this boundary as the system continues
tracking east. Local streams and river will likely rise and
localized flash flooding risk will increase. On the northwest side
of the upper low, snow is likely over New Mexico to the TX/OK
panhandles and southwestern KS. With marginally cold air in parts
of the Northeast, snow is possible in higher elevations as the
precipitation streams eastward (primarily in a warmer air mass).
The Pacific Northwest will see a few bouts of mainly light rain
and higher elevation snow.
Campbell/Fracasso
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml