Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 02 2020 - 12Z Fri Nov 06 2020
...Heavy Precipitation pattern for the Pacific Northwest next
week...
...Overview...
An anomalously strong and cold upper trough will move through the
Northeast early next week. Primarily fast zonal flow then sets up
over the nation. Aside from wet weather systems increasingly
impacting the Northwest with upper trough amplification over time,
much of the lower 48 will see little precipitation next week.
Below normal temperatures over the East will moderate, while the
West will stay above normal for much of next week.
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
Model and ensemble forecasts are in much above normal agreement
through medium range time scales, strongly bolstering forecast
confidence. A blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF in
particular offers a quite well clustered forecast consistent with
the National Blend of Models and WPC continuity. Blend weights
were shaded from the models to the ensembles over time to address
lingering differences.
...Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Respectable cold fronts sweeping over the East into early next
week will usher in cold air with some record lows in the
Mid-Atlantic as well as strong/high winds for a snowy Northeast.
Lake effect snow enhancement will be possible downwind of Lake
Erie and Ontario. Above normal temperatures over the West will
also spread eastward next week into the Plains/Midwest/Great
Lakes/Northeast. Heaviest precipitation totals will focus over the
Pacific NW, particularly Washington State with a series of
atmospheric rivers. Rains and elevation snows will spread over
much of the Northwest later next week.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml