Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
206 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 04 2020 - 12Z Sun Nov 08 2020
...Heavy precipitation for the Pacific Northwest...
...Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights...
Generally zonal large-scale flow can be expected across the CONUS
for much of the coming week, with the exception of some embedded
shortwaves. Troughing comes into the West by the end of the week,
spreading cooler temperatures and precipitation to a larger
proportion of the West after some potentially heavy precipitation
in the Pacific Northwest given moist inflow and a series of
frontal passages, especially in the Cascades and Olympics. Given
the deep troughing set to engulf the West and slow eastward
translation during the week, rain and lowering elevation snows are
forecast to spread across the North-central Great
Basin/Rockies/High Plains and farther south into CA. Other than
that, most of the CONUS should stay dry through the medium range
period, with the exception of rain over the Florida peninsula
under easterly post-frontal flow to the north of a tropical
development in the Caribbean.
...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences...
A composite blend of well clustered guidance from the latest
GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means seems to provide a good
starting point for the day 3/4 Wed/Thu forecast package across the
CONUS. Leaned heavy on the ECMWF ensemble mean Fri-next weekend.
The ECMWF ensemble mean seems to best capture flow amplification
over the CONUS, but also offers the closest depiction of the NHC
Caribbean tropical system track. The GFS/GEFS are deeper and
closer to FL.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml