Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 101 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 14 2020 - 12Z Wed Nov 18 2020 ***Active weather pattern for the West and Tropical Storm Eta affects Florida*** ...Overview... An upper level trough over the Intermountain West early Saturday, along with a strong surface low, will then cross the Midwest through the weekend, and reach the East Coast by Tuesday. By this time, an upper ridge should briefly build across the Rockies and western High Plains before the next trough and storm system approaches from the eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to slowly track north and move inland across the Florida Panhandle on Saturday and then weaken. ...Guidance Evaluation/Preferences... The deterministic guidance is in relatively good agreement through the weekend on the synoptic scale pattern, with the ECMWF slightly stronger with the upper trough crossing the Upper Midwest compared to the flatter GFS. More noteworthy differences come into play across the West Coast region by Tuesday and Wednesday with the arrival of the next trough. The CMC is displaced to the west of the model consensus with both the ridge axis and the incoming trough, and the ECMWF brings height falls faster than the GFS and the ensemble means. The WPC front/pressures forecast was primarily derived from a ECMWF/EC blend with some GFS and CMC through Day 5, and this is also closest to the official forecast track of T.S. Eta. More EC mean and NAEFS mean was incorporated for early next week to account for increasing model spread, along with some previous WPC continuity. ...Sensible weather and hazards... Unsettled weather is expected from northern California to Washington state during much of this time as two additional storm systems approach the region, with an atmospheric river event possible late Monday and into Tuesday. This will equate to a few inches of rainfall for the lower elevations near the Coast, and 1-3 feet of snow for the higher elevations of the Cascades and slightly less for the northern Rockies. There will be some moderation of the recently cold temperatures, with readings returning closer to climatological averages for this region. In contrast, the eastern U.S. will likely see temperatures fall to, or slightly below, mid-November averages by early next week as the upper trough replaces the Bermuda high. An addition round of rain is likely ahead of the next front, followed by much drier conditions as a large surface high builds in from the Plains. Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to make landfall as a weaker storm around Saturday, and then gradually dissipate as it becomes absorbed by a frontal system. Some locally heavy rain and gusty winds are likely where it makes landfall. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml