Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EST Mon Dec 14 2020
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 17 2020 - 12Z Mon Dec 21 2020
...Nor'easter to track off New England Thursday...
...Heavy precipitation pattern for the Northwest this week...
...Model Guidance Evaluation and Preferences...
Model and ensemble solutions seem fairly well clustered,
especially days 3-5 (Thu-Sat), in a pattern with seemingly overall
above average predictability. The WPC medium range product suite
was accordingly manually derived from a composite blend of the 18
UTC GFS/GEFS mean, 12 UTC ECMWF/Canadian/ECENS mean and the 01 UTC
National Blend of Models. This maintains great WPC continuity.
Latest 00 UTC guidance remains in line.
...Weather/Threats Summary...
A significant nor'easter will reach Canadian Maritimes waters Thu
as lingering high winds and heavy snows wrap-back into the
Northeast.
Across the northwestern U.S., rounds of Pacific moisture are
expected to stream onshore with passage of a series of frontal
systems. With this pattern, enhanced periods of coastal rain and
elevation snow are forecast for the coming week in the Pacific
Northwest and northern California/Sierra, with highest totals in
the favored higher elevations of the Coastal Range and Cascades.
Enhanced snows will spread inland across the Intermountain West
and the Northern Rockies where the Wind River Mountains/Tetons and
Wasatch/Uinta mountains could see notable snow totals.
A growing guidance signal shows that the downstream propagation of
energies from the West may induce Gulf of Mexico moisture return
northward through the east-central U.S. by next weekend
along/ahead of emerging frontal systems. The modest but expanding
precipitation shield may then spread through the Eastern Seaboard
late period and offer wintry potential on the more cooled northern
periphery over the northern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast where activity that may be enhanced by uncertain coastal
low genesis.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml