Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 AM EDT Sat Mar 27 2021 Valid 12Z Tue Mar 30 2021 - 12Z Sat Apr 03 2021 ...Overall Weather Pattern... The overall mid-upper level pattern across the continental U.S. is expected to be rather amplified next week. An upper ridge will briefly build across the eastern U.S. with an embedded southern stream disturbance tracking across the southeastern U.S. through Wednesday. Meanwhile, the next major storm system will be in place over the Rockies and Intermountain West to begin the week, and this storm system will steadily cross the central and eastern U.S., reaching the East Coast around Thursday morning. A large surface high should settle in across the Midwest and the east-central U.S. for the end of the week. ...Model Guidance and Predictability... The deterministic model guidance indicates above average agreement on the main synoptic scale features through about Thursday evening. The 00Z CMC becomes less amplified with the next storm system approaching the Pacific Northwest for the end of the week, and it's farther west with the downstream upper ridge axis across the north-central Plains, so more focus was applied to the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET solutions through Friday, and some more of the ensemble means for next Saturday. ...Sensible weather and potential hazards... The next system crosses the Plains with a strong surface low trekking across southern Canada for the beginning to middle of the week. This should advect enough Gulf moisture northward to produce showers and storms from the central Gulf Coast to the Northeast, and locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Appalachians by midweek, although models differ on the axis of heaviest rainfall. Strong winds are also expected across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday owing to the strong pressure gradient that will be in place. Temperatures are expected to be above average ahead of the cold front advancing across the Midwest, with readings of 5-15 degrees above average across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. An abrupt return to reality ensues by the middle of the week for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest as a much colder airmass advects into the region behind the front, with readings about 5-15+ degrees below average. This will also hold true for the East Coast by Thursday and Friday. Spring-like warm returns to much of the Plains for next weekend. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml