Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Fri Apr 09 2021
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 12 2021 - 12Z Fri Apr 16 2021
...Central Rockies/High Plains Heavy Snow Threat next week...
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a
blend of best clustered guidance from the 18 UTC GFS/GEFS mean,
the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean and the 01 UTC National Blend
of Models days 3-7 (Monday-next Friday). Applied most blend
weighting to the GFS/ECMWF early next week and gradually shifted
focus to the ensemble means into later next week consistent with
slowly building forecast spread in a pattern with good guidance
continuity and predictability. Latest 00 UTC guidance overall
remains in line with this scenario.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
An amplifying upper trough/closed low will dig and settle over a
cooled West next week to the lee of an amplified and slow moving
eastern Pacific to western Canadian upper ridge in a blocky
pattern. Expect some deformation and terrain enhanced
precipitation over the Great Basin, but there is a threat for
protracted periods of heavy snows over the Central Rockies/High
Plains as enhanced by upslope as ample Canadian surface high
pressure digs and settles southward in an airmass inherent with
10-20F below normal temperature anomalies next week.
Meanwhile, complex northern stream closed low energies over the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Monday will struggle to consolidate and
shift downstream to off the Mid-Atlantic coast late next week,
blocked by a closed low slowly retrograding from the Canadian
Maritimes. Moderate rains will accompany the path of this system
early next week before losing frontal convergence, with some
wrap-back snows possible for the Upper Midwest. A wavy trailing
front will settle over The South/Gulf of Mexico and offers
potential for some periods with moderate to heavier downpours next
week with a changing multi-day focus over the Southern Plains,
Lower Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast states/Florida as
uncertain ejecting southern stream impulses locally focus lift and
moisture.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml