Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 23 2021 - 12Z Sun Jun 27 2021
...Heat intensifies late week over the interior Northwest/West
toward record levels...
...Mid-late week heat for portions of the Plains...
...Overview...
Ample upper ridging is again forecast to build/strengthen into
parts of the West next week as troughing along the West Coast
slowly drifts offshore. This will allow another stretch of
warm/hot weather and records highs to expand over the Pacific
Northwest southward to the Desert Southwest by late in the week.
In turn, this will promote downstream troughing over the Great
Lakes/Midwest as another frontal boundary pushes through the
region with showers and storms.
...Guidance/Predictability Evaluation...
A composite blend of best clustered model solutions of the 18 UTC
GFS/GEFS mean and the 12 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean along with
the 01 UTC National Blend of Models seem to offer a good basis for
the day 3-5 (Wednesday-Friday) forecast period in a pattern with
above average continuity and predictability. The WPC product suite
was then primarily derived from still compatible GEFS/ECENS means
and the NBM next weekend in a period with slowly growing forecast
spread and uncertainty. Developing differences into next weekend
included details with the hot ridging over the West, but
especially with the amplitude and longitudinal focus of downstream
upper trough amplification over the east-central U.S.. The 00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian solutions have converged upon a more
common/amplified trough solution favorably aligned with the
aforementioned ensemble means, bolstering forecast confidence at
these longer time frames.
...Weather Highlights/Hazards...
As an upper low just off northern California slowly weakens/lifts
northward, strong ridging will build over the West, allowing
temperatures to climb to 15-25+ degrees above normal in
Washington/Oregon next weekend, and more generally 5-15 degrees
above normal along and west of the Rockies. Record highs are
likely for an expanding area late in the week as temperatures near
and over 100F will focus in interior sections of the West.
Rainfall will be little to none throughout the region.
In the East, By later week, an increasingly robust/amplified
upper trough digging from south-central Canada will carry a wavy
and fortified cold front southeastward into the east-central U.S.
as a warm front lifts through and out of the southern Plains,
inviting moisture return northward. Showers and storms will
significantly increase in coverage and intensity later week along
and ahead of the front and near areas of low pressure, focused
over the Upper Midwest/Corn Belt into the Ohio Valley/Appalachians.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml