Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EST Sat Feb 05 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 08 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 12 2022 ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Recent deterministic models and ensemble means remain generally in reasonable agreement with the larger scale upper-pattern through the first half of the medium range forecast period, with some minor timing differences noted with the individual shortwaves. A composite blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the National Blend of Models and WPC continuity seems to offer a reasonable forecast basis for days 3-5 (Tue-Thu). Replaced the models with the more compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means in the WPC composite to better maintain WPC continuity later week into next weekend amid steadily growing forecast spread. ...Pattern Overview and Weather Highlights/Threats... The upper flow pattern next week will feature a West Coast ridge with an anomalous closed upper high. This will couple with a broadly amplified trough east of the Rockies as part of a positive PNA pattern. A series of northern stream shortwaves/clipper systems reinforcing the trough over the next week offer limited precipitation potential across the northern tier in moderated flow. The best bet for enhanced wintry weather may hinge on the complex development of lead coastal lows developing off the East Coast through Tuesday night. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions for most locations next week. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml