Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 157 AM EST Sun Feb 6 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 9 2022 - 12Z Sun Feb 13 2022 ...Weather Pattern Overview... A rather amplified upper level pattern will be in place for this forecast period with a synoptic scale ridge centered near the West Coast and a broad trough over the eastern half of the nation, with multiple embedded shortwaves/fronts tracking across the Plains and then to the Great Lakes and Northeast. There is some hint of a potential pattern change by next Sunday and beyond as a more active storm track over the northeast Pacific tries to break down the western ridge some. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The latest deterministic model guidance and ensemble means are generally in reasonable agreement with the overall synoptic scale pattern through the end of the work week, with some minor timing differences noted with the individual shortwaves east of the Rockies and a slightly more amplified solution with the CMC across the Southwest and the Rio Grande Valley with a southern stream shortwave. By next weekend, more noteworthy timing/amplitude differences exist with a shortwave trough dropping south from western Canada and across the central U.S., and also with shortwave energy approaching the Pacific Northwest late next Sunday. To account for the increasing uncertainty with shortwave timing across the central/eastern U.S. for next weekend, a majority of the ensemble means was used as a starting point in the forecast process with a little of the deterministic guidance, whereas a multi-deterministic blend worked well for the middle to end of the week. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... The majority of the continental U.S. will enjoy dry weather and little in the way of weather related disruptions overall. There will likely be some rounds of light snow showers from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and New England as a couple of clipper type systems track across the region, but they will probably not have a significant source of moisture from the Gulf or Atlantic, thus keeping QPF modest. Snow showers are also likely across portions of the Rockies on Wednesday, with accumulations generally a few inches or less. Temperatures are expected to generally be above average across much of the western U.S. and the High Plains, and within 5 degrees of climatological average for much of the eastern U.S. overall, despite the upper level trough pattern in place. Readings across the central and northern Plains are expected to be about 10-20 degrees above average for the end of the week. Colder weather looks to make a return to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by next Sunday with highs running up to 10 degrees below normal. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml