Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1010 AM EST Sun Feb 06 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 09 2022 - 12Z Sun Feb 13 2022 ...Weather Pattern Overview... It remains the case that a rather amplified upper level pattern will be in place for this forecast period with a synoptic scale ridge centered near the West Coast and a broad trough with multiple embedded shortwaves/fronts over the eastern half of the nation. There is some signal of a potential pattern change by next Sunday and beyond as a more active storm track over the northeast Pacific tries to break down the West Coast ridge. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Models and ensemble means remain generally in reasonable agreement with the larger scale upper-pattern this week, albeit with numerous timing and focus differences noted with many of the individual shortwaves. A composite blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the National Blend of Models seems to offer a reasonable forecast basis for days 3-5 (Wednesday-Friday), with remaining smaller scale detail consistent with system predictability. This maintains good WPC product continuity. Transitioned to a blend of the more compatible GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means next weekend amid growing forecast spread, but manually adjusted the frontal system approaching the Northwest a bit slower than the composite indicated as longer range guidance tends to break down amplified ridges too quickly. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... The majority of the continental U.S. will enjoy dry weather and little in the way of larger scale weather related disruptions overall this week. There will likely be some rounds of light snow showers from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and New England as a couple of clipper type systems track across the region, but they will probably not have a significant source of moisture from the Gulf or Atlantic, thus keeping QPF modest. Snow showers are also likely across portions of the Rockies midweek. There is however a growing guidance signal that supports an emerging area of rain to spread onward from the Gulf Coast and Southeast later next weekend as amplified passing system energies pool deeper moisture into a trailing/wavy front. Hamrick/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml