Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 152 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Feb 26 2022 - 12Z Wed Mar 02 2022 ...Pattern Overview... Overall cold and drier conditions are slated for much of the lower 48 states this weekend into early next week to be followed by broad moderation of temperatures spreading from the West to the East early to mid next week. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from the 18 UTC GEFS mean and the 01 UTC National Blend of Models. Despite reasonably similar larger scale pattern evolutions, emphasis on any individual model does not seem prudent given recent run to run continuity issues and variance with embedded weather features. While southern stream differences actually seem a bit less pronounced than yesterday, the last few ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean runs trended much flatter over the central to eastern U.S. with northern stream upper troughing this weekend into early next week despite amplified upstream ridging over western North America. While embedded system wavelength spacing could support this trend around a Hudson Bay vortex position, instead have leaned the WPC solution to a more amplified and colder 18 UTC GEFS mean or probably the slightly less amplified 00 UTC GEFS mean. This plan best maintains WPC product continuity. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Cold high pressure will settle across much of the country by this weekend into next week. The weather pattern will also favor drier conditions. An exception may be across the south-central to southeastern U.S. where precipitation could return this weekend. This will be mainly in the form of light to moderate cold rains, but with some snow/ice threat on the northern periphery of the swath of precipitation. In addition, modest precipitation is expected to develop for the Pacific Northwest/Northern CA this weekend with slow approach of northeast Pacific systems. Precipitation totals are forecast to increase over the Pacific Northwest/northern CA and gradually spread across the northwestern states early-mid next week, including terrain enhanced snows. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml