Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 26 2022 - 12Z Wed Mar 02 2022
...Pattern Overview...
Overall cold and drier conditions are slated for much of the lower
48 states this weekend into early next week to be followed by
broad moderation of temperatures spreading from the West to the
East early to mid next week.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from the
18 UTC GEFS mean and the 01 UTC National Blend of Models. Despite
reasonably similar larger scale pattern evolutions, emphasis on
any individual model does not seem prudent given recent run to run
continuity issues and variance with embedded weather features.
While southern stream differences actually seem a bit less
pronounced than yesterday, the last few ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble
mean runs trended much flatter over the central to eastern U.S.
with northern stream upper troughing this weekend into early next
week despite amplified upstream ridging over western North
America. While embedded system wavelength spacing could support
this trend around a Hudson Bay vortex position, instead have
leaned the WPC solution to a more amplified and colder 18 UTC GEFS
mean or probably the slightly less amplified 00 UTC GEFS mean.
This plan best maintains WPC product continuity.
...Weather Highlights/Threats...
Cold high pressure will settle across much of the country by this
weekend into next week. The weather pattern will also favor drier
conditions. An exception may be across the south-central to
southeastern U.S. where precipitation could return this weekend.
This will be mainly in the form of light to moderate cold rains,
but with some snow/ice threat on the northern periphery of the
swath of precipitation. In addition, modest precipitation is
expected to develop for the Pacific Northwest/Northern CA this
weekend with slow approach of northeast Pacific systems.
Precipitation totals are forecast to increase over the Pacific
Northwest/northern CA and gradually spread across the northwestern
states early-mid next week, including terrain enhanced snows.
Schichtel
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities
and heat indices are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml