Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 154 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Feb 27 2022 - 12Z Thu Mar 03 2022 ...Pattern Overview... Overall cold and drier conditions are slated for much of the lower 48 states this weekend into early next week to be followed by broad moderation of temperatures spreading from the West to the East early through mid next week in transition to less amplified upper level flow. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a general deterministic model blend through day 5 with less weighting to the 00z CMC on day 4. Greater weighting given to the 00z UK/EC since they appeared to find a middle ground solution between the 06z GFS and 00z CMC with respect to a shortwave propagating through the West on day 5. An ensemble blend, composed of the 06z GEFS and 00z ECENS/CMCE, as well as a bit of 00z EC and 06z GEFS were utilized on days 6 and 7. Models and ensembles offer a reasonably similar larger scale pattern evolution, but continue to offer run to run continuity issues and variance with smaller scale embedded weather features such as a shortwave trough making its way through the West on day 4. ...Weather Highlights/Threats... Cold high pressure will settle across much of the country by this weekend into next week. The weather pattern will favor drier conditions. However, a pair of Alberta Clippers will likely produce periodic light northern tier snows from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northeast. Also, expect a swath of modest precipitation to traverse the Southeast into Sunday/Monday. This will be mainly be in the form of light to moderate cold rain, but with some snow/ice threat on the northern periphery of the swath of precipitation. In addition, a weak atmospheric river event will to develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern CA this weekend with slow approach of northeast Pacific systems. Precipitation totals are forecast to increase over the Pacific Northwest/northern CA and increasingly spread across the northwestern states through early and mid next week with upper trough and associated lead frontal system approach and passage. This pattern will include locally terrain enhancing heavier snows. Kebede/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml