Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 243 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 28 2022 - 12Z Sat Jul 02 2022 ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights.. A broad upper level ridge over the southern half of the nation should offer widespread early summer heat and also hold a main storm track over the U.S. northern tier. A lead shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast early next week, with a wavy trailing front settling down and lingering over the Southeast and Gulf Coast to pool deep/tropical moisture to fuel some slow moving convective downpours. Several more shortwaves and frontal systems will traverse the northern tier to focus periodic strong convection and downpours next week. This will occur as additional heat focusing upper ridging built over the northern Great Basil/Rockies by Tuesday slides steadily eastward over the north-central U.S. then Midwest into later next week as a mean upper trough settles into and moderates the Northwest. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... Guidance solutions seem reasonably well clustered well into medium range timescales in a pattern with above normal predictability with the mid-larger scale pattern evolution. The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the 18 UTC GFS and 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian models along with the 01 UTC National Blend of Models (NBM) for days 3-5 (Tue-Thu). The GFS/ECMWF stay most compatible with GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means into days 6/7 (next Friday/Saturday), so that composite blend was utilized for that period along with the NBM. WPC product continuity is good and individual system forecast differences seem well addressed by the blending process, consistent with predictability. 00 UTC guidance seems overall in line. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml