Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 29 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 3 2022
...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights..
An upper ridge will remain in place over the southern half of the
CONUS throughout next week, while progressive flow aloft across
the northern tier will be accompanied by periodic shortwave
troughs embedded in the flow. For the middle of the week, a
stationary front will likely be stalled along the Southeast Coast
and Gulf Coast region, and this boundary may act as the focus for
enhanced moisture and greater coverage of showers and storms.
Elsewhere, another shortwave trough passes across the Northern
Plains and Great Lakes region mid to late week, bringing periodic
chances for showers/storms and locally heavy rainfall. Ahead of
that trough passage, hot temperatures will progress from the
Rockies to the Plains and eventually the Northeast by the end of
the upcoming work week, followed by slightly cooler readings by
next Sunday as a cold front settles southward.
...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment...
The 00Z model guidance suite is in very good synoptic scale
agreement through the end of the week across the nation. Guidance
solutions seem reasonably well clustered well into medium range
timescales in a pattern with above normal predictability with the
mid-larger scale pattern evolution. The WPC medium range product
suite was primarily derived from a deterministic model blend
through early Friday, and then slightly more of the ensemble means
going into next weekend to account for greater differences in the
mesoscale details. This maintains good overall WPC product
continuity, and individual system forecast differences seem well
addressed by the mode blend.
Hamrick
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall
outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are
at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml