Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 29 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 03 2022 ...Pattern Overview and Weather/Hazard Highlights.. A summertime upper ridge will generally remain in place over the southern half of the lower 48 states over the next week. A wavy stationary front will likely be stalled along the Southeast Coast and Gulf Coast region into mid-late week and this boundary may act as the focus for enhanced Gulf of Mexico/tropical moisture and greater coverage of convection/locally heavy downpours inland. Meanwhile, progressive flow aloft across southern Canada and the U.S. northern tier will be accompanied by periodic shortwave troughs embedded in the flow. A lead upper trough will track from the Midwest/Great Lakes to the Northeast mid-late week and a second upper trough expected to work from the Pacific Northwest to the Northeast Wednesday-Friday may both bring periodic chances for showers/storms and locally heavy downpours. Underneath, late week moisture return back through the south-central Rockies may fuel some enhanced rainfall there and heavier convective activity may also develope downstream/northeastward along a sagging frontal zone across the Plains/Midwest/Northeast later week into next weekend. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The 00/06/12 UTC model and ensemble guidance suites remain in very good synoptic scale agreement through the end of the week across much of the nation. Guidance solutions seem reasonably well clustered well into medium range timescales in a pattern with above normal predictability with the mid-larger scale pattern evolution. The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a deterministic model blend through early Friday, and then slightly more of the ensemble means going into next weekend to account for greater differences in the mesoscale details. This maintains good overall WPC product continuity, and individual system forecast differences seem well mitigated by the blend process consistent with uncertainty. Hamrick/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml