Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 253 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 30 2022 - 12Z Mon Jul 4 2022 ...Weather Pattern Overview... A relatively zonal upper level flow pattern is expected to be in place across the northern tier of the nation for the end of the week. A deep upper low situated over the Hudson Bay region will result in a broad trough over the Northeast U.S. going into the weekend, and a downstream upper ridge axis builds over the Plains by early next week. Meanwhile, a trough builds in the vicinity of the West Coast by the end of the forecast period behind a slow moving front. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model and ensemble guidance suite remain in very good synoptic scale agreement through the end of the week across much of the nation. The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a deterministic model blend through early Saturday, and then slightly more of the ensemble means going into Sunday and Monday to account for greater differences in the mesoscale details. This maintains good overall WPC product continuity, and individual system forecast differences seem well mitigated by the blend process. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... A lingering stationary front along the Gulf Coast and southeast coastal U.S. will likely promote the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms for the end of the work week. There may be an enhanced area of heavier rainfall across portions of Texas based on recent GFS/ECMWF runs, and this will likely be dependent on any organized low pressure areas that develop over the western Gulf. Farther north, a corridor of showers and storms is likely along and ahead of a cold front that will be slowly tracking towards the southeast across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes regions going into the weekend. Monsoonal moisture over the Four Corners region may also result in scattered areas of heavier rainfall. In terms of temperatures, expect readings to be running up to 10 degrees above normal ahead of the front from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast U.S. to close out the week, followed by seasonal temperatures going into the Saturday to Monday time period. Heat is likely to build again across the central and northern Plains by next Monday in response to the building upper ridge, and slightly cooler conditions for the West Coast region. Hamrick Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml