Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 30 2022 - 12Z Mon Jul 04 2022 ...Weather Pattern Overview... A relatively zonal upper level flow pattern in place over the northern tier of the nation this week may amplify over the holiday weekend as a closed low/trough develops near the Pacific NW/West Coast and as a hot ridge lingering over the U.S. southern tier builds over the north-central states. This scenario may also support holiday amplification of a broad trough over the Northeast U.S. underneath a deep Hudson Bay closed vortex. NHC is monitoring a tropical wave/disturbance over the northern Gulf of Mexico underneath the ridge. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The 00/06/12 UTC model and ensemble guidance suite remain in very good synoptic scale agreement through medium range time scales. The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a model and supporting ensemble mean composite blend days 3-7 (Thursday-July 4th). This maintains good overall WPC product continuity, and individual system forecast differences seem well mitigated by the blend process. Potential tropical influences into Texas later this week and subsequent deep moisture feed/QPF inland remain less certain. ...Sensible Weather and Potential Hazards... A lingering stationary front along the Gulf Coast and southeast coastal U.S. will likely promote the development of scattered to numerous showers and storms for the end of the work week. There may be an enhanced area of heavier rainfall across portions of Texas based on recent Canadian/ECMWF runs, and this will likely be dependent on any organized low pressure areas that develop over the western Gulf of Mexico as per NHC. Farther north, a corridor of showers and storms is likely along and ahead of a cold front that will be slowly tracking towards the southeast across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes regions going into the weekend. Monsoonal moisture over the Four Corners region may also result in scattered areas of heavier rainfall. , In terms of temperatures, expect readings to be running up to 10 degrees above normal ahead of the front from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast U.S. to close out the week, followed by seasonal temperatures going into the Saturday to Monday time period. Heat is likely to build again across the central and northern Plains by next Monday in response to the building upper ridge, and slightly cooler conditions for the West Coast region. Hamrick/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml