Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 31 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Aug 03 2022 - 12Z Sun Aug 07 2022 ...Heat wave to spread from the Plains to the East Coast this week... ...Wet Monsoonal Pattern continues for the Southwest and Great Basin... ...General Overview... Hot upper ridging intensifies over the central U.S. and expands over the East this week as convection rides underneath over the South. Monsoonal flow into the Southwest/Great Basin/Rockies stays active and re-intensifies late week. An active upper level pattern will be in place across the northern tier states of our fine country, with a lead trough and cold front crossing the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and Northeast mid-late week. Another trough is now expected to settle over the Northwest mid-late week, with energy ejecting downstream into the weekend. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of now well clustered mid-larger scale guidance of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian and GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ensemble means as well as WPC continuity and the National Blend of Models. This bolsters forecast confidence to above average levels in these features and the manual adjustment and blending processes tend to mitigate lingering and mainly smaller scale system timing and focus variances consistent with individual system predictability. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... Another heat wave is expected to make weather headlines this week from the Plains to the East, with daytime highs running well into the 90s and exceeding 100 degrees in some cases to threaten some local records. Meanwhile, temperatures will likely be near to slightly below normal across much of the western U.S. for most of the forecast period. This also includes the Desert Southwest where increased cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures in check. In terms of precipitation, there is a stronger model signal for a corridor of heavy showers and storms ahead of the cold front crossing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, and a Slight Risk area of the experimental WPC medium range Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) is shown in the midweek Day 4 outlook from northern Illinois to southern Michigan. There will still be plenty of monsoonal moisture in place across the southwestern U.S., with enough expected coverage of slow moving storms to merit another ERO Slight Risk area on Day 5 by Thursday across much of southeastern Arizona. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are also likely for portions of the Gulf Coast region to close out the week. Hamrick/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml