Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 210 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 12 2022 - 12Z Wed Nov 16 2022 ...Heavy rains from Nicole may continue across parts of the Northeast into Saturday... ...Overview... What is left of Nicole by the start of the medium range period should get picked up by an amplified trough moving in from the Midwest. Heavy rainfall for Nicole by Saturday however should mostly be exiting the CONUS, with some lingering heavy rains over the Northeast. Despite significant uncertainties in the details, an amplifying upper ridge over the Northeast Pacific/northwestern North America behind this should help promote renewed troughing into the central U.S. and below normal temperatures over much of the country into next week. ...Guidance and Predictability Assessment... The guidance shows good agreement, with some lingering detail differences, in the eventual absorption of Nicole by the medium range period over the East. After this, the guidance begins to diverge significantly regarding a southern stream upper closed low into the West Coast and northern stream energy dropping in from Canada. Models disagree by early next week on how these two systems may interact and/or which one becomes more dominant and continue to exhibit high run to run variability. A look at the ensembles show a wide array of solutions after day 5. WPC leaned pretty heavily on the ensemble means late period in an effort to mitigate these differences and smooth things out a bit. Regardless, there is good agreement on a building upper ridge over the East Pacific which should promote another fairly amplified pattern over the CONUS by the early to middle part of next week. ...Weather/Hazard Highlights... Heavy rainfall across the Northeast associated with Nicole should be waning by late Saturday/early Sunday. As the parent trough upper low moves through though, there is a threat for some lake effect snow within the typical snow belts next week over the upper and lower Great Lakes. In the west, some light precipitation is expected to accompany the system into the West this weekend, and then as the next trough amplifies over the central U.S.. A returning warm front through the northern Gulf of Mexico may spread some rainfall into the Texas and central Gulf Coasts as well. Below normal temperatures will spread across the country through early next week under the developing trough and offshore ridge axis out west. The coldest air will spread from the northern Rockies through the northern Plains and southward into next week. Max temp anomalies of 15 to 25 degrees below normal are forecast with several days of subzero mins in portions of the Dakotas, eastern Montana and northern Minnesota. Above normal temperatures along the immediate East Coast on Saturday should quickly trend colder thereafter. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, experimental excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml