Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 01 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 04 2023 - 12Z Fri Sep 08 2023 ...Summer-like Heat to spread slowly across the Plains and Midwest toward the East next week... ...Wet pattern to work from the Intermountain West to the northern Rockies/Plains early next week... ...Overview... An amplified upper trough over the West will lift out through the north-central Intermountain West/Rockies and the north-central U.S. early-mid next week as kicked by additional upper energies feeding inland from the Pacific. Height falls and pooled moisture and instability near an associated front will fuel a swath of showers and thunderstorms that could lead to areas of excessive rainfall and flooding concerns, particularly across the northern High Plains/Rockies. Downstream, yet another hot summertime upper ridge over the central U.S. will gradually shift eastward through next week. This pattern will support well above seasonal normal temperatures across the Plains, Upper Midwest before approaching the East and also back again into the Southwest. Meanwhile, scattered showers and storms could persist across the Gulf Coast region into Florida next week with a lingering and slow moving shortwave trough and frontal boundary. The ultimate eastward progression of the aforementioned upper ridge and rounding impulses may prove critical with respect to the later next week track of resilient Idalia over the western Atlantic. ...Guidance Evaluation/Predictability Assessment... There remain some strength/timing differences in the details, but on the large scale, there was good enough agreement the first half of the period for a general deterministic model blend, with slight preference towards the more consistent ECMWF. After day 5, there are some greater differences which emerge involving flow interactions across the lower 48, and eventual track of Idalia over the western Atlantic. There remains some suggestion (though lowering potential) in the guidance that Idalia could make a turn back towards the Canadian Maritimes/Northeast, and this potential relies heavily on details of energies over the building ridge in the East. As such, it seemed prudent to switch to a mostly ensemble mean blend for the late periods. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... As a main upper trough lifts from the West early next week, precipitation should expand/push through the northern Rockies/Plains while lingering over parts of the Intermountain West. This is likely as flow to the east of the trough axis offers instability and channeled monsoonal moisture with precipitable water values well above normal. Given the favorable set-up and increasing QPF with later model runs, opted to add a slight risk to the Day 4/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook from far eastern Idaho into northwest Wyoming/southeast Montana. Rain chances generally spread east Tuesday-Wednesday, but some lingering moisture across the northern High Plains in conjunction with prior day rainfall, allowed for the inclusion of a marginal risk for Day 5/Tuesday. Rain will eventually spread east into the Midwest mid-week as the upper trough and cold front move eastward. Farther south, a shortwave is forecast to hover over the Lower Mississippi Valley, which in combination with a frontal boundary will provide support for scattered showers and storms. Similarly, some showers are possible across especially the southern Florida Peninsula. Heat is forecast to build across parts of the central to eastern U.S. next week underneath upper ridging. Temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above seasonal average are expected across the north-central states and record warm maximum and minimum temperatures could be widespread. Highs will be well into the 90s if not possibly even hitting the 100F mark there, with lows potentially staying in the mid-70s with limited overnight relief. The north-central U.S. should see some relief with cooler temperatures pushing west to east by Tuesday-Thursday as an upper trough and surface cold front move through. But this will push above normal temperatures into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region and the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with anomalies around +10-15 degrees. Farther south, temperatures generally 10-15 degrees above average (around 100F for highs) will extend summer for the southern half of the Plains through next week. The western U.S. on the other hand looks to be on the cool side especially for high temperatures particularly early in the week, with some moderation by midweek. Santorelli/Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw