Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1159 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 25 2019 - 12Z Sat Jun 29 2019 ...Weather Highlights/Threats... An amplified/closed upper low will slowly rotate over a cooled/unsettled Pacific Northwest next week. This anomalous system will support lead frontal passage underneath across the central Great Basin/Rockies, with lead N-central U.S. system genesis and return moisture/instability fueling organized convection mid-later next week. A summertime upper ridge will meanwhile build underneath over a warming central U.S. A lead system will lift northeastward through the Great Lakes/Northeast as its trailing cold front stalls and then dissipates over the Southeast, still remaining a local focus for thunderstorms. Several reinforcing impulses and surface fronts feed into the Great Lakes/Northeast in the wake of the lead system to focus additional convective swaths. Upper ridging initially over Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will be replaced by an inverted Gulf Coast states upper trough by later next week. Slow translation and deep moisture pooling in a moist southeasterly low-level fetch will favor an uncertain and localized heavy downpours threat over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Models and ensembles are in better than normal agreement through medium range time scales, bolstering forecast confidence. The WPC medium range product suite was primarily derived from a composite blend of the latest GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian days 3-5 then latest GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/ECMWF ensemble mean days 6/7. Schichtel Additional 3-7 Day Hazards information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation, winter weather outlook probabilities and heat indices are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml